January 3rd, 2012

Predictions for 2012: “more of the same” in Russian economy

While the state of the Eurozone remains the most pressing economic issue on the Continent, post-recession Russia isn’t expected to accelerate its growth either, according to John Bonar of British-based Business Special Report-Russia, with the challenges that marked 2011 not likely to abate any time soon:

All the leading investment banks predict more-or-less the same thing for Russia in 2012: a poor and volatile first quarter of the year with growth, investment and stock markets picking up and gathering momentum in the second half of year, barring a train wreck in the rest of Europe.

Moscow rings in the new year. Credit: AP

Bonar reports that capital flight of roughly $6 billion a month is predicted through the first quarter, with some 150,000 Russians looking to emigrate to improve their economic standing.

Lack of investor confidence in Russia also means “there is little prospect of any significant Russian IPOs” on the London Stock Exchange until the second quarter or later.

Economists, Bonar notes, are anxiously awaiting the March 4 presidential election, which, although the winner is predetermined, will be more interesting given recent demonstrations across the country.

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