Committee for Russian Economic Freedom

Sergei Ignatiev, the head of Russia’s Central Bank, estimates the volume of illegal capital outflow from Russia mounted to around $35bn. He believes that almost half of this sum left Russia through identical schemes organized by one interconnected group of individuals.

Sergei Ignatiev knows more than he reveals publicly

Central bank spots illegal capital outflow by financial transactions of legal entities that have no economic activity other than these transactions and don’t pay any taxes. Sergei Ignatiev explained that this illegal capital could be formed by proceedings from drug traffic and corruption.

$35bn is around 2% of Russian GDP. Most countries have a bigger share of shadow economy. More important is that almost $20bn of illegal outflows is controlled by one group of beneficiaries, and they are not shy to be visible to the Central Bank clerks. Sergei Ignatiev rarely gives any interviews and he is even more careful in his statements than his colleagues from western countries. According to Sergei Aleksashenko, a first deputy central bank governor in 90ies, Sergei Ignatiev couldn’t have made his statement without reporting his findings first to the Russia’s political leadership and legal authorities. However, no official reaction followed the interview.

According to the unnamed source of Financial Times, the financial schemes Mr. Ignatiev is talking about are identical to those discovered by Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer who died in Moscow’s police custody after attempting to investigate the case of financial fraud. People familiar with the Russia’s autocratic regime assume that such high-scale and transparent to Central Bank capital outflow could have become possible only with the help of somebody from the Putin’s inner circle.

Sergei Ignatiev has a lot of reasons to be cautious both in his words and actions. Perhaps, the most important of them is his deputy Andrei Kozlov who was shot dead after initiating a bold crusade on money-laundering schemes in Russian banking system.

FT

The Herod’s law, which bans the adoption of Russian orphans by U.S. citizens, draws public attention to the orphans’ problem in Russia. The number of orphans adopted by both Russians and foreigners has been declining since 2007. Though the government spends significant amount of money on foster care, it is unable to solve the problem.

The Federal Assembly voted for the Herod's law almost unanimously

The orphanages are not interested in promoting adoption of children since their funding depends on the number of children they are responsible for. If a child is adopted by a family, an orphanage looses money. If the number of children in orphanage falls below a certain level, an institution could be abandoned with its employees likely to loose their jobs.

The average spending on a kid in a Moscow orphanage is mounted to 33 thousand dollars per annum, well above the average spending on a child in a Russian family. However, this money doesn’t help to create decent conditions in orphanages. According to the recent investigation of Alexei Navalny, an anti-corruption activist, non-transpatent, corruption-like deals are widespread in the procurement for orphanages.

Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin still believes that the problems of orphans could be solved through pumping yet more government money into the state-run orphanages. Simultaneously with signing the Herod’s law he ordered to increase subsidies to families who adopted children. According to Ludmila Petrushevskay, famous psychologist specializing on helping families with adopted children, the emphasize on financial stimulus only worsen the problem. She cites cases when parents dismissed their children only to adopt them soon after that and receive subsidies from the state. Orphans, who are entitled to a free housing from the state, often become victims of fraud or spend their fortune on drugs and spirits.

The orphanage crisis illustrates the weaknesses of Putin’s hands-on approach. His usual solution to any problem is to increase financing, toughen regulation and appoint new federal bureaucrats. In this case decentralization and private initiative are more likely to bring relief to orphans than yet another round of state enlargement.

The Economist

Several anticorruption probes became public in Russia last week. First, the defense minister was ousted and some of his close associates were arrested. Second, a former deputy head of the Ministry of Regional Development was arrested. Third, several high-ranked officials were dismissed in the course of investigation in the Federal Space Agency. In all these cases high-ranked officials are suspected in embezzlement of state funds.

Anatoly Serdyukov was a defense minister in 2007-2012 and served as the head of The Federal Taxation Services before that. He spearheaded the tax prosecution of YUKOS during his time in the tax office. His high-ranked associates were in the center of the tax fraud schemes, discovered by Sergei Magnitsky. According to the investigation of Novaya Gazeta, an independent newspaper, the federal budget lost around one billion dollars in such schemes. For now the investigators’ claims against Mr Serdyukov’s employees (but not himself) total three billion rubles (less than 100 million dollars). Roman Panov from the Ministry of Regional Development is suspected in defrauding the federal budget of 90 million rubles (less than three million dollars) out of many billion dollars wasted in the highly inefficient construction projects dedicated to the APEC summit.

KGB veteran Sergei Ivanov is in the center of the anticorruption campaign

The loud anticorruption campaigns don’t help to curb the corruption burden on the Russian economy. Plenty of famous cases, investigated by anticorruption activist and publicized in the media, are left without any attention from the officials. Anticorruption campaigns usually reflect the internal Kremlin fights. The real reason for Mr Serdyukov’s fall was either that he was not able to maximize cash flows from corruption or was not willing to share the wealth with his influential colleagues from the Mr Putin’s team. Charges against his associates most likely were triggered by his decline to buy the obsolete but overpriced production of the domestic defense industry.

More competitive political system is much needed to cure corruption in Russia. Free media, independent law enforcement authorities and court system are efficient instruments for combating corruption. An alternative is a dictatorship headed by a cruel but incorruptible leader – a model of governance that Russia experienced in Stalin’s years. The Putin’s Russia is equally far from the both poles of low corruption. As a result, corruption is flourishing as well as loud anticorruption campaigns.

CBS News

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US Vice President Joseph Biden in Russia

The investment calculus shifted yet again in Russia as Bloomberg News reports that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s ruling party failed to gain a majority of the vote in several regional polls, less than a year before parliamentary and presidential elections. This comes on the heels of U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden warning the regime that only genuine change will bring “wronged or nervous” investors back in to Russia:

Americans, Europeans, and Russians themselves, are less likely to invest confidently in a country where property rights are frequently violated, where fortunes can be lost because of legal abuses, where companies can be seized on a politician’s whim, and where a lawyer like Sergei Magnitsky can be arrested after accusing the police of fraud — and then die in detention before ever being tried.

Russian President’s chief economic advisor Arkady Dvorkovich acknowledged in a BBC interview that his country is having a perception issue. He also suggested that 1,000 years of corruption is a hard habit to kick but the authorities are looking into violations of the rule of law. Acceptance is the first step to change and Russia is in need of much change. In the latest Transparency International  survey, Russia declined in ranking again this year to 154 out of 178 countries.

Perception is based on reality and a whistleblower came out today to implicate Prime Minister Putin at the top of an elaborate multiyear scheme to extract contributions from Russian businessmen. Sergei Kolesnikov, a business associate of Putin, has offered the most detailed description of how Putin has engaged in a combination of corruption, bribery and theft to amass his own personal wealth. Read the letter here.

In the open letter to President Medvedev, Kolesnikov reveals Putin’s secret funding network. This letter was delivered Tuesday to the Russian U.N. mission in New York. Two or three times a year Kolesnikov regularly briefed Putin on his personal wealth accumulated through contributions by businessmen. Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote today that “it’s one of the most detailed allegations I’ve seen of the links between Putin and Russia’s “crony capitalism.”

Additional reporting by Ellen Barry at the New York Times show how corruption and politics prevent uncovering the truth about the death of Sergei Magnitsky. Contradictory official statements and lack of oversight have prevented the truth to be known. President Medvedev established the Public Oversight Commission to look into the case but after an initial thoughtful review was hijacked by security forces.

These same Federal Security Service (FSB) forces also known as the siloviki are the subject of an article in the New York Review of Books which refers to them as the New Nobility in Russia. In the assessment the FSB runs the country with Putin at the top.

…the FSB focuses its efforts on protecting the Kremlin’s vast economic interests, suppressing legitimate political opposition, and ensuring the Kremlin’s control over the press and television through intimidation and violence.

Our recent participation in the Global Macro Investing and Geopolitical Risk Forum in New York helped us focus attention on the challenges and potential rewards of investing in Russia. We are asking supporters of free markets, free ideas and free people to show support for the rule of law, transparency and secure profits by requesting a symbolic share in Russian Economic Freedom today.

By becoming a shareholder in Economic Freedom you will send a message to Russia’s leaders that direct foreign investment will increase only if they stem corruption, increase transparency and enhance corporate governance. Owning a share will cost you nothing more than the courage of your own convictions, yet it will yield tremendous social and financial rewards for asset managers and the Russian people alike. Hedge your position – short Russia’s current regime and go long Russia’s economic future.

As you know, hope for an improved investment climate in Russia surged after President Dmitry Medvedev’s tour of Silicon Valley in June and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s October visit to Skolkovo, the new business and research hub started by Medvedev to encourage high tech innovation. Despite intense words of support by the Russian political and business elite, it’s become even more apparent that incubating entrepreneurs in Russia face massive bureaucratic hurdles to success.

As part of President Medvedev’s push to diversify the economy, he has launched an anti-corruption campaign, but the results have demonstrated the systemic nature of corruption in Russian society. The Prosecutor General Yury Chaika announced that the average bribe increased 30 percent to 30,500 rubles ($1,015) from 23,100 rubles last year. At a meeting of the heads of the law enforcement agencies, Chaika exhorted his colleagues, “In 2008 and 2009, we saw a significant revival of work in this area, but the results of the activities of law enforcement agencies in the first half of this year confirm complacency and a decrease of effectiveness and quality of work.”

At the capital markets level, a disappointing performance for Russian IPOs this year reflects the lack of progress in strengthening enforceable contracts, scaling back government intervention in business and allowing greater political expression. So far, the Russian IPO market has totaled only $3 billion this year, of which $2.2 billion is made up of the Rusal IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March. This is only a tenth of the $20 billion IPO market predicted earlier this year by sell-side analysts.

The Russian stock market is posting gains along with increases by other emerging powerhouses China and India. However, volatility reigns as valuations on the RTS Index are trading at an average multiple of seven times 2010 earnings while other emerging markets are changing hands at an average of 13 times earnings. This represents an inherent risk premium for Russian businesses as investors seek safer harbors for their assets.

Transparency International’s recently released 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Russia as the world’s most corrupt major economy, falling to 154th of 178 countries. (Russia placed 146th in the 2009 index of 180 countries.) Russians now pay bribes totaling $300 billion a year, equivalent to almost a quarter of the nation’s GDP, according to Kirill Kabanov, head of the National Anti-Corruption Committee.

Jailed Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Hermitage Capital’s Bill Browder know all about doing business in Russia and how successful businesses can be run aground by the capricious whims of government officials. Khodorkovsky’s second trial is approaching its end and despite the trappings of a functioning judicial system, the ultimate decision maker of his fate rests within the Kremlin.

“A guilty verdict would damage President Medvedev’s reputation and his drive for modernization,” Mark Urnov, a political scientist at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told Bloomberg News. “Though Medvedev has never said that he’d like Khodorkovsky to be freed, his acquittal would be seen by many as Medvedev’s achievement.”

James Beadle, a U.K.-based consultant for investors in Russia, echoed that “a negative outcome for Khodorkovsky is likely to reinforce investor skepticism toward the fairness of the Russian business climate … I don’t think that any foreign company is under any illusions that things have changed; they remain hesitant.”

Investors should also heed the fate of Sergey Magnitsky, Hermitage Capital’s attorney who refused to give in to corrupt tax officials only to pay with his life. Recently, both US houses of Congress introduced the “Justice for Sergei Magnitsky Act of 2010”, which is not only symbolic but hits his perpetrators in their pocketbooks. The bill prevents Russian officials implicated in Sergey’s murder from entering the United States and freezes their assets here.

When introducing the bill, US Senator Benjamin Cardin said,

Nearly a year after Sergei’s death, the leading figures in this scheme remain in power in Russia. It has become clear that if we expect any measure of justice in this case, we must act in the United States…At the least we can and should block these corrupt individuals from traveling and investing their ill-gotten money in our country.

Although Russia is a tempting place to invest in new business with their highly educated population and large reserves, you should be cautious about the exhortations offered by President Medvedev. He has promised much but delivered little during his term and with the 2012 presidential elections coming up, the winds are blowing against his direction and even his meager declarations of modernization, transparency and accountability may come to an end.

Email info@russianeconomicfreedom.org and become a shareholder of Russian Economic Freedom.

President Dmitri A. Medvedev, in a Soviet-built luxury car, with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

As a counterpoint to President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Silicon Valley back in June, California Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger was invited to visit the Skolkovo, the new business school started by Medvedev to encourage high tech innovation with ambitious Silicon Valley aspirations. Despite intense support by the Russian political and business elite, incubating entrepreneurs in Russia face bureaucratic hurdles to success.

As part of Medvedev’s push to diversify the economy, he has launched an anti-corruption campaign but the results have demonstrated the systemic nature of corruption in Russian society. Recently, Yury Chaika the Prosecutor General has announced that the average bribe increased 30% from last year from 30,500 rubles ($1,015) to 23,100 rubles. At a meeting of the heads of the law enforcement agencies, Chaika exhorted his colleagues, “In 2008 and 2009, we saw a significant revival of work in this area, but the results of the activities of law enforcement agencies in the first half of this year confirm complacency and a decrease of effectiveness and quality of work.”

At the capital markets level, a disappointing IPO market this year reflects the lack of progress in strengthening the rule of law, scaling back government intervention in business and allowing greater political expression. So far, the Russian IPO market has totaled only $3 billion this year, of which $2.2 billion is made up of the Rusal IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March. This is only a tenth of the $20 billion IPO market predicted earlier this year by sell-side analysts.

Although markets have been volatile, the Russian stock market has posted a 5% gain this month along with gains by other emerging markets powerhouses China and India. However valuations on the RTS Index are trading at an average multiple of 7 times 2010 earnings where other emerging markets are seeing an average of 13 times earnings. This is the inherent risk premium for businesses doing business in Russia as investors seek safer harbors for their assets.

Transparency International’s 2011 Corruption Perception Index is to be released next Monday, October 25 and it will be telling whether Russia improves or inches ever closer to the likes of Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe.

Jailed Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Hermitage Capital’s Bill Browder know all about doing business in Russia and how successful businesses can be run aground by the capricious whims of government officials. Khodorkovsky’s second trial is approaching its end and despite the trappings of a functioning judicial system, the ultimate decision maker of his fate rests within the Kremlin.

Investors should also heed the fate of Sergey Magnitsky, Hermitage Capital’s attorney who refused to give in to corrupt tax officials only to pay with his life. Recently, both US houses of Congress introduced the “Justice for Sergei Magnitsky Act of 2010”, which is not only symbolic but hits his perpetrators in their pocketbooks. The bill prevents Russian officials implicated in Sergey’s murder from entering the United States and freezes their assets here.

When introducing the bill, US Senator Benjamin Cardin said,

“Nearly a year after Sergei’s death, the leading figures in this scheme remain in power in Russia. It has become clear that if we expect any measure of justice in this case, we must act in the United States…At the least we can and should block these corrupt individuals from traveling and investing their ill-gotten money in our country.”

Although Russia is a tempting place to invest in new business with their highly educated population and large reserves, you should take caution to the promises offered by President Medvedev. He has promised much but delivered little during his term and with the 2012 presidential elections coming up, the winds are blowing against his direction and even his meager declarations of modernization, transparency and accountability may come to an end.

US Congress began steps to battle corruption in Russia. Senator Benjamin L. Cardin (D-MD), Chairman of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Commission), and U.S. Representative James P. McGovern (D-MA), Chairman of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, yesterday introduced bills that would freeze assets of and block visas to individuals responsible for the 2009 death of Russian anti-corruption lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, related to a $234 million tax fraud scheme against Hermitage Capital.

This bill would bar all individuals connected to the 2009 death of Sergei Magnitsky from receiving U.S. visas and accessing U.S. financial markets.

As the US Congress tries to fight corruption from abroad, Russian authorities continue to tighten their grip on political discourse. This week Russia President Dmitry Medvedev fired Moscow mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov. In early September Luzhkov criticized Medvedev on his management of a highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg and seemed to call for Putin’s return to power. Some say this crack in Kremlin leadership left Medvedev no choice but to let Luzhkov go, but he needed affirmation by Putin, the real power in the Kremlin.

As authoritarianism calcifies in Russia, financial markets and public discourse suffers. Despite Medvedev’s grand tour of Silicon Valley and his musing on legal nihilism, the status quo in Russia remains strong.

Russian Officials Involved in Tax Fraud Against Hermitage Capital and the Death of Sergei Magnitsky

Jamison Firestone describes the highlife and crimes of Russian official Pavel Karpov and Sergey Magnitsky lies in prison.

Cloudy Precipice / Tom Burgher Gallery

Despite the recent spate of international news over the past week, from the hamburger summit in DC to the G20 in Toronto to Russian spies in Suburbia USA, underlying global economics has not changed and talk of a double-dip recession has revived. Even the dreaded “d” word was uttered by NYTimes’s Paul Krugman in his assessment of the US economy. Signs of a global weakening is evidenced by the fall in world equity indices, weak US home sales and China’s manufacturing growth is weakening as its government reduces stimulus. Debate rages on the effects of deficits on the economy. While the two sides debate the merits of deficit reduction over stimulus spending, the world economy feels like it is again at a precipice.

In the most recent Reuters’ Russian analysis, three factors remain unchanges from their last report in April: oil prices, political risk and insurgency. For the 2010 budget the Kremlin used a $75 barrel estimate, but with crude oil prices falling under $73 a barrel, the Kremlin may have to return to the capital markets trough and isuue more debt to cover budget deficits.

Medvedev understands the need for Russia to diversify its economy and made a major international push last week with his visit to Silicon Valley. However, it still remains to be seen how the power struggle is resolved. The 2012 presidential election presents political risks for investors and many anaylsts predict that:

Russia is unlikely to lure the level of investment or international support it deserves as long as Putin and his ensemble remain publicly engaged.

With the tandem leadership jostling for advantage, it remains to be seen if Medvedev’s push for modernization can resist the pull of Putin. In addition to a change of guard in the Kremlin, Reuters cites the release or acquittal of Mikhail Khodorkovsky as a sign of liberalization and a “bellwether” of Russian policy.

However, current signs point to the status quo as the authorities refuse to investigate into the suspect death of Hermitage Capital’s Sergey Magnitsky in pre-trial detention.