Committee for Russian Economic Freedom

Cloudy Precipice / Tom Burgher Gallery

Despite the recent spate of international news over the past week, from the hamburger summit in DC to the G20 in Toronto to Russian spies in Suburbia USA, underlying global economics has not changed and talk of a double-dip recession has revived. Even the dreaded “d” word was uttered by NYTimes’s Paul Krugman in his assessment of the US economy. Signs of a global weakening is evidenced by the fall in world equity indices, weak US home sales and China’s manufacturing growth is weakening as its government reduces stimulus. Debate rages on the effects of deficits on the economy. While the two sides debate the merits of deficit reduction over stimulus spending, the world economy feels like it is again at a precipice.

In the most recent Reuters’ Russian analysis, three factors remain unchanges from their last report in April: oil prices, political risk and insurgency. For the 2010 budget the Kremlin used a $75 barrel estimate, but with crude oil prices falling under $73 a barrel, the Kremlin may have to return to the capital markets trough and isuue more debt to cover budget deficits.

Medvedev understands the need for Russia to diversify its economy and made a major international push last week with his visit to Silicon Valley. However, it still remains to be seen how the power struggle is resolved. The 2012 presidential election presents political risks for investors and many anaylsts predict that:

Russia is unlikely to lure the level of investment or international support it deserves as long as Putin and his ensemble remain publicly engaged.

With the tandem leadership jostling for advantage, it remains to be seen if Medvedev’s push for modernization can resist the pull of Putin. In addition to a change of guard in the Kremlin, Reuters cites the release or acquittal of Mikhail Khodorkovsky as a sign of liberalization and a “bellwether” of Russian policy.

However, current signs point to the status quo as the authorities refuse to investigate into the suspect death of Hermitage Capital’s Sergey Magnitsky in pre-trial detention.

Reuters recently released an article outlining three key risks in Russia: the variable price of oil, political shake up in the Kremlin and further insurgency attacks. Though the world’s largest energy producer, Russia’s manufacturing, construction and retail industries continues to contract as domestic consumption and foreign investment continues to lag, increasing the economy’s dependence on oil prices for growth.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin remains popular and the driver behind the co-governance team with President Dmitry Medvedev. Despite highlighting their differences and indicating Medvedev’s intentions of political and judicial reform, Reuters notes that Russian markets would rebound only if Putin remained in place. The maintenance of the status quo despite Russia’s world renown for government corruption and weak rule of law seems curious. With foreign investors, such as IKEA, Hermitage Capital, and now HBK investments scaling back or pulling out of Russia due to corruption and extortion, why would the markets value Russian companies more if the status quo remained?

And how does the continued expropriation of private business by government officials add to Russia’s economic capital?

The extraction of Russia’s economic and natural resources by the politically connected few leads to only self-enrichment. Perhaps this self-enrichment would be tolerable if the proceeds were reinvested in Russia and the Russian people, but this is rarely the case. What Russia needs is investment to update oil and pipeline infrastructure, capital to encourage innovation and a stronger rule of law to benefit all Russian people.

Russia’s most famous political prisoner, Mikhail Khodorkovsky began his spirited defense yesterday against his Kafka-esque second trial. The government charged Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev with stealing 2.5 billion barrels of YUKOS’s crude oil or a third of the United States’ entire annual consumption of oil.

The trial is also viewed domestically and abroad as a test of Medvedev’s commitment to ending “legal nihilism” and his power and control within the Kremlin. Medvedev even started a national anti-corruption drive this March. According the Associated Press,

The trial is considered a test of whether President Dmitry Medvedev, himself a lawyer, is serious about reforming Russia’s judicial system. In other cases, judges have come forward to complain they face political pressure.

Only time will tell if Medvedev makes good on his words.

Moscow Times reports today that even though Russia is one of the top five places for foreign direct investment (FDI) it is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels until 2013. Russia’s economy shrink by 7.9 percent in 2009 and is expected to grow to 3.1 percent in 2010, according to analysts reports.

According to Capital Economics analysts:

[Russia] may not return to its pre-crisis levels until 2012. By contrast, the Chinese and Indian economies are expected to grow by more than 25 percent over the same period. So for now at least, Russia seems destined to remain the fourth BRIC.

IKEA, the global furniture giant, recently fired their two executives who turned a blind eye on government bribes, but only to move their expansion project forward. Mikael Ohlsson, the chief executive and president for the Ikea Group, Ikea’s largest franchisee, which includes the Russian operation, said in a statement, “Corruption is totally unacceptable for Ikea.”

Corruption is a serious issue in Russia and it is routinely discussed by President Medvedev as a top priority for his government, however, not much as changed. The investment environment in Russia remains toxic and Russia is now falling behind economically and academically its BRIC rivals Brazil, India and China. In a recent Financial Times article, a large pension fund manager asked this question,

Russia defaulted in ‘91, restructured in ‘95, defaulted in ‘98, took assets away from Yukos, from Shell from BP. If you cmplain, you get expelled from the country and then if you continue to complain you may die in London from polonium poisoning, or die in pre-trial detention in Russia. Now tell me why I should invest in Russia?

Keeping Khodorkovsky in Prison Hurts Business

Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital, whose attorney Sergei Magnitsky died in Russian custody last November was interviewed by Reuters TV about doing business in Russia.

From my own perspective, for every investor that’s there – there are probably 20 that are not there for reasons of Khodorkovsky, what happened to Sergei [Magnitsky] and other things.

At an international conference in Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who also happens to be the head of Russia’s anti-crisis program, mentioned two impediments to Russia’s economic development: lack of private property rights and an over dependence on oil and other raw materials to drive economic growth.

US Ambassador to Russia John Beyrle included these challenges in his speech at University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy last week. Ambassador Beyrle cited corruption and the lack of rule of law in Russia as impediments to both foreign investment and the development of a democratic society.

On corruption, Ambassador Beyrle said,

Russia is still a very tough place to do business. The combination of bureaucratic and administrative obstacles intertwined with pervasive corruption in Russia still constitutes a pretty significant risk premium for American investors and American businessmen who want to enter the Russian market or grow their businesses.

And on the rule of law in Russia, he said,

Corruption in the Russian government and especially in the judicial system…is still rampant in Russia. The road ahead for Russia is not completely clear.

What both Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov and Ambassador Beyrle recognize is reflected in the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom out this week. Russia’s overall rating in this measurement of economic openness, regulatory efficiency, the rule of law and competitiveness, dropped 10.5 points to 50.3 this year. Ten different components make up the overall score and Russia’s three lowest scores are in the Investment Freedom, Property Rights and Freedom from Corruption categories.

‘The problems of systemic corruption, abuse of property rights and legal nihilism are well known and recently publicly discussed by top US and Russian officials. The question is what, if anything, are they going to do with these impediments to Russia’s economic growth? Besides talking about “reset” or “modernization,” do they have the political will to find solutions to these issues?

Ambassador Beyrle said,

Corruption in the Russian government and especially in the judicial system…is still rampant in Russia.

In a recent Newsweek article, “Sechin Evolution into Reportedly Number Two Man in Russian Government Examined,” Vice Premier Igor Sechin is revealed to be the true power broker in the Russian White House, “the country’s main manager” and “expanding…spheres of influence.” Additionally, IHS Global Insight recently reported:

…that Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Sechin, has reminded investors that new amendments to the law on foreign investment in state–controlled strategic mineral fields are not designed to relinquish state control over the strategic assets but rather to offer an asset-swap to gain a foothold in Russia’s natural resources industry. Sechin’s comments are a stark reminder why the investors are wary of venturing into Russia in the first place. The Kremlin needs to do more to assure the foreign investors, already guarded by the infamous Yukos and BP nationalisation cases, that they will be offered fair compensation and will have a clear explanation of what constitutes strategically important resources. IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis, Russian Prime Minister Seeks Foreign Investors’ Advice to Improve Investment Law, by Lilit Gevorgyan, 23 December, 2009

Indeed, with Sechin as Russia’s Vice Premier for Industry and Energy, the risk of corporate raiding by government officials remains high and President Medvedev’s talk of ending legal nihilism, will be just that, talk.

Via the EU-Russia Centre, Der Welt published an article on why Mikhail Khodorkovsky remains significant to Russia’s economic development. According to the article “at least one third of the population expressed according to the survey Institute Levada-Center at the beginning of the conviction that people like Khodorkovsky could help with their know-how of the country in crisis.”

The full article translated below via Google Translate:

Khodorkovsky’s long shadow
Yukos was once an example to be established early on ethics and years later Vladimir Putin again lives in fear of the dead and a group jailed billionaire
Eduard Stein
December 2009, 04:00 Clock 14h

For some reason, Vladimir Putin, sensing a need for clarification. After six years of evasive answers and arcane information about the rise and fall of the government-imposed oil company Yukos was Russia’s most powerful man on television two weeks ago suddenly on the offensive. For years, curious person urged the former President and current Prime Minister, a plausible explanation. Vain. Finally, it was a dish that had sent the once-largest oil company in the country several years ago in the bankruptcy, said Putin and his top officials free of the responsibility: Finally, the court on a repeated sentence or the release would be the Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest decide.

But it was still Putin himself, who forestalled suddenly in the course of his TV Question Time the court and in unexpected detail, commented on the case. What should spontaneously appear, therefore, ultimately came more through-composed. Do not go there about when to release for whom, “said the Prime Minister go there so that repetition of such economic crimes. They also maintained that the money from the auction of Yukos assets RULE in social housing has been set, “Putin said to the astonished spectators”. Then, to dare the legal tightrope: the ex-security chief of Yukos, Alexei Pitschugin, who has been convicted of three contract killings in 2007 to life imprisonment without the guilt, “has clearly acted in the interest of and on behalf of the owner.

Since Putin knows his opponent over the court, “said Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who himself was never accused of murder, from prison. You may still call upon the Premier to give evidence.

In seven days on the beginning of the Causa Yukos, the topic is thus again a household word. For years, the Russian authorities had hoped that the interest in his most prominent prisoner, who was once estimated at 15 billion U.S. dollars assets, more and more abated. And in the end perhaps totally dies. Too much the case had tarnished the image of the rulers and the country already. No other matter beyond the Chechen war had made the perceptive world opinion against Russia’s development under Putin. No subject had clearly signaled observers abroad that began with Putin after a decade of attempts in a market economy and democracy in a new era of statism and the authoritarian power vertical in Russia.

None other than 25 October 2003 was so obvious. Early in the morning landed on that day a Russian Tupoljew with Khodorkovsky aboard in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. A few minutes later, the domestic intelligence service FSB special forces stormed the plane. “When I saw the siege was everything to me clearly,” to the then forty-year multi-billionaire said.

Already months before a string of incidents had indicated that was the most modern and most efficient oil company in the country with his boss and major shareholder in the crosshairs of investigators. What followed after the arrest, was an unprecedented geheimdienstgeschulten tug of war between the Kremlin and the relentless head of a mega company with 105,00 employees. At the end Khodorkovsky was convicted of fraud and tax evasion in 2005 with eight years imprisonment in the remotest Siberia. Subsequently, Yukos was filleted and mostly incorporated into the state oil company Rosneft, which rose to the market leader.

Since the spring of this year, Khodorkovsky is in Moscow again in court. Shake about the new indictment not only Putin’s critics around: the tycoon is the whole Yukos flow have been stolen. Previously he had been convicted solely because of tax evasion for the Yukos oil. Now the prosecutor has accused him of having illegally sold oil worth 20 billion euros. In extreme cases, this latest charge threaten to bring more than 20 years in prison.

One should remember the Mafia boss Al Capone, the “30 year old was formally sentenced in the U.S. for tax fraud – but in reality for all crimes he committed,” Putin initiated at the end of November in France. His answers to answer the questions about Khodorkovsky was drastic. He likened his rival on this occasion with the U.S. billion fraudster Bernard Madoff, who was sentenced to 150 years in prison. Nobody has felt the injustice and “even a beep given by itself,” complained Vladimir Putin. Why just the other Causa Khodorkovsky with a measure would be measured?

Because it was politically motivated to be Khodorkovsky’s lawyers never tires of stressing. That’s what Putin himself admitted behind closed doors, said a few months ago, none other than Mikhail Kasyanov, the beginning of the affair, Prime Minister under Putin. The former president had echauffiert about the fact that Khodorkovsky without permission of the Kremlin’s next Liberal parties also began to sponsor the Communists,’ said Kasyanov. Immediately after his assumption of office, Putin had called all the oligarchs to abide by political non-interference. All other tycoons, who like Khodorkovsky, seized during the privatizations of the 90s to questionable nature and at bargain prices, huge fortunes under the nail, and great power within the state itself, had understood Putin’s message – and Khodorkovsky was warned. The wealth had gone to his head and caused a feeling of integrity, he would tell later companions. “Was Chodor,” as his intimates call him, just a strong person with principles to keep his followers against it.

Khodorkovsky has indeed has strong international support. Unlike court proceedings, the lobbying machine of the volatile Yukos billionaire runs very fast. Together with lawyers, they instigated in an information war with the Kremlin, which they have won very early on. In early December, they also achieved a real part of success: An international arbitration tribunal in The Hague ordered former Yukos shareholders to legal action against the Russian government because it had allowed, despite binding to the International Energy Charter, the expropriation of the Group. As the claim will be circulated to the shareholders of 100 billion U.S. dollars.

“In the end, the European Court, but not 10,000 dollars compensation claim,” warns Alexei Makarkin of the Moscow Center for Political Technologies to realism in a new information war. But also includes Makarkin – such as Khodorkovsky’s supporters – not that Putin’s attacks against the detainee associated with the decision of the Court of Holland and the prime minister had once built a defensive line.

For just as likely, but observers think that is on the rise in the Russian government panic because the politicians are afraid because of the absurdity of the charge in the current second trial in Moscow for an acquittal.

Domestically, such a defeat would have to get over, however. The nation does not feel any great sympathy for Khodorkovsky. But at least one third of the population expressed according to the survey by the Institute Levada-Center at the beginning of the conviction, that people think Khodorkovsky could help with their know-how of the country in crisis. “If Khodorkovsky was set free, he would become perhaps less economically, but socially active,” says Sergei Guriev, rector of New Economic School in Moscow: “As a moral authority he could collect a lot of people around.”

An acquittal would have still another effect: When would this year have a pregnant Yukos lawyer suffering from AIDS and the former deputy leader of the group have been released from prison, the verdict further evidence of potential investors that the new president, Dmitry Medvedev, with the modernization seriously. “It would be a sign that the country does not drift to a halt,” says Guriev.

But that when it comes to power, the investment climate for the governance of secondary, Makarkin said: “Being a strong character Khodorkovsky is ready to fight. Putin has made clear with his recent statements that he did not want to see him in freedom.”

According to the WSJ’s article, “Rusal Listing Delay Won’t Derail IPO,” the various hurdles to Rusal’s IPO are just bumps on the road to the first Russian listing in Hong Kong. Rusal is the world’s largest aluminum producer and is expected to raise about $2.5 billion in the IPO.

But an exchange not known for onerous listing requirements has requested more information from Rusal and Goldman Sachs was dropped as a book runner “after the investment bank expressed reservations about sponsoring the deal.”

The proceeds from the Rusal IPO would go to repay part of its $4.5 billion loan largely held by the Russian state-run VEB bank, also Rusal’s biggest single creditor. It seems like Goldman Sachs and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are having second thoughts about facilitating a deal that would line the pockets of an oligopolistic petrostate.