Committee for Russian Economic Freedom

Shockwaves rolled through the Russian investment community today with news that masked policemen stormed Deutsche Bank’s main Moscow office grilling bankers and frightening employees. The raid, reportedly tied to a probe of investments by a political foe of Putin, Inc., comes just days after President Medvedev unveiled a plan to establish Moscow as an international financial center akin to Hong Kong and Singapore.

The New York Times reported today:

Whatever the legal or political missteps of such clients, foreign bankers in Moscow have for years implored the government to refrain from conducting such jarring raids on bank offices. Sometimes, police wielding guns force stock analysts and economists onto the floors of their offices.

That’s not the way to boost investor confidence.

Russia Profile reported on Medvedev’s speech at Davos to convince world and business leaders that Russia is ready to do business again. However, Tai Adelaja notes that

Despite the horrendous terrorist attacks, experts say the only bug in the president’s ointment is the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the jailed former billionaire head of Yukos Oil, which continues to cast a shadow on the rule of law and leave a negative impact on Russia’s reputation abroad.

Adelaja describes Medvedev’s top ten reasons to invest in Russia. Here are some reasons to disagree.

Number one: Russia has slashed the number of its strategic companies fivefold. It is no secret that Russia experienced record capital outflows in 2010 and despite rising oil prices faces huge budget gaps. The Kremlin as its self interest in mind when it sheds strategic assets. Putin’s government has a history of opening up businesses to investments to allow others to turnaround the company only to come in at the end to take the company away through trumped up taxes and other phantom violations.

Number two: Russia is set to embark on a large-scale sell-off of state assets in efforts to modernize its country. The Russian government is expected to sell $32 billion in assets by 2013. Foreign investors should remember that some of those state assets were acquired by the state through expropriation. Rosneft’s major assets came after the dismantling of Yukos; now Russian officials are asking investors to risk their capital in Russia again.

Number three: President Medvedev said is poised to create a “special sovereign fund” to attract foreign capital. This was written about in an earlier post. With corruption at all levels in Russia continuing to climb, it was a contributor to the attack at the Domodedovo airport on January 24, Russia is now the lowest ranked developing country in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Out of 178 countries, Russia is ranked 154th. With capital leakage out of the Russian economy at all levels, it is clear that the special sovereign fund will be a tool for foreign investors to give money to Russian officials. Prime Minister Putin, the leader of the power tandem, has built himself a $1 billion palace with money milked from the power vertical he created. Below are some pictures, provided by RuLeaks, Russia’s version of WikiLeaks.

For more pictures click on photo.

Reason four: Medvedev reiterated that Russia will refrain from imposing a special tax on banks and the financial sector in an effort to attract addtional capital into the country. Russia needs to do all it can to attract foreign investment. In 2010, $38 billion in capital flight was from not only foreign investors but Russian ones as well seeking higher returns for their investment. The Russian stock market, despite being in the so-called BRIC powerhouse and overweighted in emerging markets indices, has lagged the other countries in performance and carries a 30% discount in valuations from other emerging economies.

Reason five: the Kremlin is pressing ahead with efforts to transform Moscow into one of the top-ten global financial centers as part of a drive to diversify the economy away from energy exports. President Medvedev announed in May 2010 that Alexander Voloshin, chairman of Russia’s metals giant Norilsk Nickel, will be the newest member of a presidential council on financial reform and lead the conversion of Moscow into a global financial powerhouse. As we mentioned in an earlier post, Russia is not yet a member of  International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), which is a minimum requirement for international financial centers. Of greater concern is why financial centers appear and grow, to efficiently allocate capital. But with even Russian investors shunning their exchange for London, New York or Hong Kong and capital outflows reaching record numbers, it is difficult to see how Moscow can differentiate itself and maintain international market standards.

Reason six: Medvedev reaffirmed Russia’s ambition to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). President Medevedev has proven himself to be ambitious in words but lacking in execution. From his anti-corruption commission to fighting the terrorists who attacked the Moscow airport, Medvedev is the more articulate of the leadership tandem, but he is not the one who holds the power. Medevedev recently admitted that there has been no progress in the country’s anti-corruption progress.

Reason seven: Medvedev vowed to continue the implementation of energy efficiency programs, stressing that the state would also enourage more partnerships in the energy sector. Rosneft, the 75% state owned oil producer recently announced partnerships with BP and Exxon Mobil. BP seemed to have learned from their previous scuffles with Russian authorities that political power trumps business ones. So it has decided to leave its long-time Russia partner TNK and $990 million in dividends to join forces with Putin and Igor Sechin at Rosneft.

Reason eight: Russia is presently developing a mechanism that would help it share technology – especially military technology – with other nations.  This seems to be another tactic for selling state assets as the Kremlin tries to find additional sources of capital, even as the price of oil moves past $90 a barrel.

Reason nine: Russia continues to invest heavily in its human resources, including trying to educate future businessmen and officials abroad.  President Medvedev said at Davos, “Our task is to make Russia more attractive to foreign experts to work in.” Expat workers need to remember Yukos and its audit firm, PWC. During the politically motivated second trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, PWC officials were pressured by Kremlin officials to rescind their audit certification of oil giant Yukos to prove the prosecutor’s case. 

Reason ten: Russia is also pushing to interest investors in projects related to the development of sports and large athletic events in preparation for the Olympic Games. Russia is hosting the 2014 Winter Games and corruption is roaring its head as the Sochi Winter Games in 2014 is already the most expensive by far. Just today, the constructiion chief for the Sochi Olympics, Taimuraz Bolloyev stepped down as President Medvedev announced fraud investigations.

Davos 2011

News out of Davos that the Moscow regime has struck mega mega oil and gas deals with BP and Exxon Mobil has heightened a sense among other potential investors that Russia may not be worth the risk. In their agreement with Igor Sechin’s state-controlled Rosneft, BP even turned its back on long-time Russian partners TNK, which took action yesterday in a London court to protect its interests.

Exxon Mobil also doesn’t seem to have a problem in doing business with Sechin and others who built Rosneft by stealing the assets of Yukos and sending its chairman Mikhail Khodorkovsky to a Siberian prison.

Despite an attempt by President Medvedev at Davos to promote investing in Russia, the corruption tax on investment flows directly to the Kremlin. As these two deals demonstrate, the Kremlin orchestrates deals to enrich themselves, adding resonance to Medvedev’s own words to Russian business leaders on December 29 that the country’s investment climate is “very bad.”

As Mikhail Khodorkovsky recently said to the International Herald Tribune and others,

It is obvious that those who can truly be called “oligarchs” – those who have combined state power and big business in one individual – were created by none other than Vladimir Putin and are his comrade-in-arms. The rest of the “Forbes faces” – and indeed a significant part of small business as well – have agreed to pay tribute to the bureaucracy in one form or another…Russia is a sovereign state, but to support deception to demonstrate respect for its corrupt officials, is amoral.

Russia started 2011 in the shadow of the Khodorkovsky trial. Judge Danilkin delivered a guilty verdict and the maximum sentence requested by the prosecutors, signalling to investors that Prime Minister Putin’s power vertical remained as strong as ever. Despite recovering from the lows of 2009, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev recently told the press that total capital outflors will be in the $25-30 billion range. Russian investors took Putin’s retention of power seriously and looked for safer places to invest.

According to Russia analyst James Beadle:

[Russia's] economic development is the innocent victim in this domestic power play. Russia’s business leaders may understand this message but international investors don’t. They observe a distrubing dichotomy between words and actions. Putin has demonstrated that his arbitrary word is the law and that Russia’s legal system remains feudal…Russia’s popularity as a target for investment of all forms will be hindered by insecure political structures. Foreign direct investment will be the biggest victim.

Russia also faces pressure to reduce corrpution and President Medvedev has put that at the top of his agenda. Despite Medvedev’s efforts at combating corruption, Russia continues to fail to comply with the Council of Europe’s Group of Statees Against Corruption (GRECO). Out of 26 recommendations made, Russia completed only a third. Accoring to Alexei Volkov, head of the State Duma’s commission on anti-corruption legislation, change in the area of corruption requires “deep” analysis to see if “they will work in Russia taking into account our culture and tradions.” Would that be the culture of corruption Mikhail Khodorkovsky mentioned in 2010?

Tony Avelar/Bloomberg News

News that Goldman Sachs engineered a major stake in Facebook, the world’s most popular social networking website, by Moscow-based investment firm DST Global offers more evidence to support Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s observation in the Washington Post last year that corruption ranks as a leading Russian export.

“The source of the funds used to make the Facebook investment merits further investigation,” said Pavel Ivlev, chairman of the Committee for Russian Economic Freedom. “It’s increasingly clear that money stolen by corrupt Russian officials is being spirited out of the country and invested in legitimate Western businesses.”

Created in 2005, DST is owned by oligarch Alisher Usmanov and Yuri Milner, founder of Russia’s most successful Internet ventures, including Mail.ru.

Usmanov, a native of Uzbekistan, spent six years in an Uzbek prison on a conviction of fraud and embezzlement in the 1980s, charges he says were politically inspired. A Soviet court later dismissed the charges and Usmanov eventually made billions of dollars in the post-Soviet era by managing steel mill subsidiaries for Gazprom before they were spun off as his own businesses.

The record shows that Usmanov’s relationship with Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin leaders has made him one of Russia’s wealthiest men. From his lead role at Gazprom, the state-controlled energy giant that absorbed assets stolen from Khodorkovsky’s Yukos in 2003-2004, to his current company Metalloinvest, Usmanov has made the money he used to invest in Facebook by capitalizing on what former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov calls “Putin’s capitalism for friends.”

Milner got his start in business working for Khodorkovsky’s bank Menatep, setting up a brokerage and investment arm before leaving in 1997, the Financial Times reported. Officials aligned with the regime later prosecuted former Menatap financial executives and tried to force them to testify falsely against Khodorkovsky. But not Milner, who shifted into investing in the Internet with the backing of Usmanov and others tied to Putin.

Following Khodorkovsky’s conviction last month a second round of trumped up charges, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko dismissed protests from leaders in Washington and EU capitals, saying “we expect everyone to mind their own business, both at home and in the international arena.”

Investors in Russia have done just that, “minding their own business” by pulling assets out of the country at an accelerated pace, according to Pavel K. Baev in a post-verdict analysis.

The conviction of Khodorkovsky proves that Prime Minister Putin and not President Medvedev controls Russia and “translates into a re-evaluation of business and personal prospects in a country of self-serving bureaucracy – and into capital flight that increased sharply in the last months of 2010 and is set to reach $25 billion to $30 billion,” Baev wrote.

“Medvedev tries to explain away this worrisome trend by emphasizing the need to improve the investment climate, which in his view “leaves something to be desired; it is bad.” Medvedev has also initiated a package of reforms in economic legislation that should take effect in 2011-12, and quite probably he simply does not understand that the Khodorkovsky case is not a minor setback for the markets, as it was five years ago, but the irrefutable verdict on his “modernization” strategy.” Yet the verdict renders hollow Medvedev’s statements supporting the rule of law and enforceable contracts in Russia.

“Investors in PepsiCo, Morgan Stanley, Facebook should closely question their board members about the prudence of those companies risking capital with the Putin regime given the growing list of major Western companies that have been defrauded by corrupt Russian officials,” Ivlev said. “But more telling are the latest statistics which show that Russian businesses that have benefited from the regime are now eschewing further investments in the country given the lawlessness that they themselves helped promote.”

Russian President’s chief economic advisor Arkady Dvorkovich acknowledged in a BBC interview that his country is having a perception issue. He also suggested that 1,000 years of corruption is a hard habit to kick but the authorities are looking into violations of the rule of law. Acceptance is the first step to change and Russia is in need of much change. In the latest Transparency International  survey, Russia declined in ranking again this year to 154 out of 178 countries.

Perception is based on reality and a whistleblower came out today to implicate Prime Minister Putin at the top of an elaborate multiyear scheme to extract contributions from Russian businessmen. Sergei Kolesnikov, a business associate of Putin, has offered the most detailed description of how Putin has engaged in a combination of corruption, bribery and theft to amass his own personal wealth. Read the letter here.

In the open letter to President Medvedev, Kolesnikov reveals Putin’s secret funding network. This letter was delivered Tuesday to the Russian U.N. mission in New York. Two or three times a year Kolesnikov regularly briefed Putin on his personal wealth accumulated through contributions by businessmen. Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote today that “it’s one of the most detailed allegations I’ve seen of the links between Putin and Russia’s “crony capitalism.”

Additional reporting by Ellen Barry at the New York Times show how corruption and politics prevent uncovering the truth about the death of Sergei Magnitsky. Contradictory official statements and lack of oversight have prevented the truth to be known. President Medvedev established the Public Oversight Commission to look into the case but after an initial thoughtful review was hijacked by security forces.

These same Federal Security Service (FSB) forces also known as the siloviki are the subject of an article in the New York Review of Books which refers to them as the New Nobility in Russia. In the assessment the FSB runs the country with Putin at the top.

…the FSB focuses its efforts on protecting the Kremlin’s vast economic interests, suppressing legitimate political opposition, and ensuring the Kremlin’s control over the press and television through intimidation and violence.

“The Kremlin says Russia is a country of great opportunity. But my trial demonstrates that it is also a country of great risks.” – Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev looks through 3D glasses at an exhibition at the economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, Saturday, June 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Dmitry Lovetsky)

Just a few weeks ago Putin was front and center with his visits to Istanbul and Paris, negotiating foreign policy disputes over UN sanctions against Iran. He even made comments about his tandem leadership with Medvedev that Kremlinologist have interpreted to mean that Putin as no choice but take over the reins in 2012, lest Medvedev actually execute his modernization plans by reducing 160,000 bureaucrats and nearly 300,000 policemen. Of course not all of these government employees have profited from Putin’s rein at the helm but they benefit from the existing “old” system (“budget inefficiency and a resource-based economy” as Arkady Dvorkovich, Medvedev’s top economic advisor put it.)

What a difference a few weeks make.

This week President Medvedev is visiting Silicon Valley to drum up support for a Russian Silicon Valley in Skolkovo outside Moscow. Despite a more promising outlook for Russia’s growth this year, in order for Medvedev’s modernization to be realized, laws must be enacted and enforced.

Another hinderance to Medvedev’s efforts is widespread corruption in the country, equivalent to a third of the country’s GDP annually. The death of Sergey Magnitsky while in pre-trial detention hangs like a cloud. Today, Magnitsky’s business partner Jamison Firestone released a video documenting what the government officials who are responsible for Magnitsky’s death are doing with their ill-gotten fortunes.

Beyond the Magnitsky tragedy the Khodorkovsky trial is a symbol of the lack of property rights in Russia and is costing Russian companies a risk premium as foreign investors demand greater compensation for this political risk.

Leon Aron, director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute wrote in the Los Angeles Times that:

The road to a Russian Silicon Valley starts not in California, Mr. President. It begins with unlocking the door to Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s jail cell.

This is a critical time for Russia’s development as an emerging market. It remains to be seen if Medvedev’s modernization initiatives will be allowed to proceed and allow Russia to develop in an ever crowded global economic playing field or will the presidential election of 2012 reaffirm the Kremlinologists prediction that Putin will rein in liberalizing efforts and lead Russia down the path of increased centralization in government and government oversight of business and trade.

Reuters recently released an article outlining three key risks in Russia: the variable price of oil, political shake up in the Kremlin and further insurgency attacks. Though the world’s largest energy producer, Russia’s manufacturing, construction and retail industries continues to contract as domestic consumption and foreign investment continues to lag, increasing the economy’s dependence on oil prices for growth.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin remains popular and the driver behind the co-governance team with President Dmitry Medvedev. Despite highlighting their differences and indicating Medvedev’s intentions of political and judicial reform, Reuters notes that Russian markets would rebound only if Putin remained in place. The maintenance of the status quo despite Russia’s world renown for government corruption and weak rule of law seems curious. With foreign investors, such as IKEA, Hermitage Capital, and now HBK investments scaling back or pulling out of Russia due to corruption and extortion, why would the markets value Russian companies more if the status quo remained?

And how does the continued expropriation of private business by government officials add to Russia’s economic capital?

The extraction of Russia’s economic and natural resources by the politically connected few leads to only self-enrichment. Perhaps this self-enrichment would be tolerable if the proceeds were reinvested in Russia and the Russian people, but this is rarely the case. What Russia needs is investment to update oil and pipeline infrastructure, capital to encourage innovation and a stronger rule of law to benefit all Russian people.

Russia’s most famous political prisoner, Mikhail Khodorkovsky began his spirited defense yesterday against his Kafka-esque second trial. The government charged Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev with stealing 2.5 billion barrels of YUKOS’s crude oil or a third of the United States’ entire annual consumption of oil.

The trial is also viewed domestically and abroad as a test of Medvedev’s commitment to ending “legal nihilism” and his power and control within the Kremlin. Medvedev even started a national anti-corruption drive this March. According the Associated Press,

The trial is considered a test of whether President Dmitry Medvedev, himself a lawyer, is serious about reforming Russia’s judicial system. In other cases, judges have come forward to complain they face political pressure.

Only time will tell if Medvedev makes good on his words.

Despite a recent article linking Russian Medvedev’s liberalization efforts as gloss on Putin’s authoritarianism, there remains a way for political outsiders, Russians and foreign investors to effect change in Russia, and that is through company ownership. With no political opposition and cronies heading up the country’s largest companies, the current political structure is in place to maintain Russia as an ATM for the political elite. According to Transparency International Russia,

Since Putin came to office in 2000, Russian officials are estimated to have skimmed some $200 to $300 billion a year from the economy.

The most important job of the Russian government is to ensure that all the stolen money remains hidden and that the system aiding and abetting the pilfering of national assets remains in place. So, even though 93% of Russians believe that the government is not doing enough to combat corruption, Medvedev will not enact meaningful reform and rock the boat he helped build with Putin.

One of the only ways to make Russian political and business elite to take notice, is shareholder activism. By using his minority ownership of state-run companies, Alexei Navalny has shone the spotlight on the mismanagement and embezzlement by government officials. Foreign investors in Russia can do the same by demanding a greater percentage of ownership and management input from Russian companies that seek to tap into international capital markets. From this ownership position, accountability and transparency can start to take root in the Russian economy.